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Alchemy strives not only to expand your wealth, but also the horizon of your financial knowledge. Thought Leadership is an exhaustive collection of blogs with additional inputs from industry experts about the different aspects to superlative asset management.
The discussion/ material is for informational purposes only. Please refer to our Disclaimer and Disclosures for more details.
Aug 2024
Nifty 50 gained 3.9% in July 2024, led by strong data from the FMCG and IT sectors, where some signs of rural recovery are beginning to emerge. Energy prices stayed high, but banks disappointed in terms of growth in deposits and showed some sys...
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Jan 2024
As we move into the new year 2024 and make some new year resolutions, here’s something of interest in the Bhagavad Gita - The sixth chapter of the Bhagavad Gita is known as “Dhyaana Yoga”.
Meditation is a topic that...
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Dec 2023
In chapter 5 of the Bhagavad Gita, Shree Krishna compares Karm Ssanyās Yog (the path of renunciation of actions) with Karmyog (the path of work in devotion).
He says: We can choose either of the two paths, as both lead to the same de...
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Nov 2023
Human beings have the privilege of acquiring knowledge and passing it on to the next generation and that is how all the different branches of knowledge have grown. Electronics, medicine etc did not evolve in one day, not by one person, nor in o...
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Oct 2023
Continuing our discussion on Bhagavad Gita we move on to Chapter 3 – In the previous chapters Krishna had taught Arjuna that one should be centred or maintain equanimity in pleasant and unpleasant situations. But Arjuna had not internalis...
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Sep 2023
Continuing with our discussion of the Bhagavad Gita, in the second chapter Arjuna completely surrenders himself to Shri Krishna and accepts his position as a disciple and Krishna as his Guru. He requests Krishna to guide him on how to dismiss h...
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Aug 2023
Robert Oppenheimer, the American theoretical physicist was not alone in admiring the Hindu text, the Bhagavad Gita. Henry David Thoreau wrote, "In the morning I bathe my intellect in the stupendous and cosmogonal philosophy of the Bhagavad...
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Jul 2023
The market momentum continued into Jun-23 with a strong broad-based performance. Small and mid-caps outperformed with capital goods, auto ancillaries and defence emerging as some of the strongest sectors. The Nifty also touched a new high. Desp...
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Jun 2023
Equities performed strongly in May-23. The Nifty rallied 2.6% with an even stronger performance from small and mid-cap indices (see table below). Auto, IT and FMCG led the way with > 5% rallies while banks underperformed. The strong rally co...
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May 2023
The Nifty rallied 4% in Apr-23 on the back of a confluence of positives. The earnings season was on track with no major negative surprises. Domestic financial conditions eased on the back of RBI’s surprise pause. Global tailwinds also hel...
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Apr 2023
Analysis of key numbers for FY24 gives us some comfort on the broader markets. Valuations have meaningfully corrected and should be supportive. The earnings outlook also remains positive with consensus estimates indicating a broad-based recover...
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Mar 2023
The stress in the US banking system has created significant short-term risks for the equity markets. The timely and aggressive intervention by the Fed and the Treasury is likely to contain the damage but markets could, nevertheless, remain in r...
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Mar 2023
We see a bottom-up market in India over the next 2-3 quarters with no clear direction for the broader market and not too many sectoral themes playing out. Our focus remains, therefore on individual companies as we expect divergent performance e...
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Feb 2023
The strong Union budget for FY24 is positive for the equity markets in the medium term. The fiscal prudence, combined with improved quality of expenditure, paves the way for a multi-year macro sweet spot - high GDP growth with stable financial ...
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Jan 2023
Dear Investors,
Happy New Year! Wish you a safe, healthy, and prosperous 2023.
There is much to be optimistic about in the coming 12 months. India’s macro should stabilise as rates peak, the currency steadies, and gr...
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Dec 2022
The Nifty touched a new lifetime high on 1-Dec-22 and we see a breakout from here on the broader indices. The stars seem to be aligning for equities as headwinds from the synchronous global tightening dissipate over the next 2-3 quarters. On th...
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Nov 2022
The markets saw a strong Oct-22 with large cap indices leading the charge. Banks and IT led the charge with significant outperformance. Hawkish commentary from the Fed has popped up as a speed-breaker in early Nov-22 and could put some dampener...
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Oct 2022
The Nifty corrected 3.7% in September 2022 after a strong 19% rally between 19-Jun 2022 and 15-Sep 2022. The sell-off was largely triggered by global factors like continuing tightening by the Fed and instability brought on by Britain’s mi...
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Sep 2022
Indian markets remained strong through Aug-2022 and we continue to be bullish on markets. The breadth of the current rally, with mid and small caps outperforming, reinforces our confidence. We believe that investors should look through near-ter...
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Aug 2022
India is poised to enter a golden phase of sustained growth over the next decade. The opportunity was always visible, but we now see a confluence of unique strengths. Favourable demographics and per capita income crossing the crucial $2000 mark...
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Aug 2022
The Indian rupee dropped sharply in July 2022, down 1.5% despite the strong end-of-month rally. We see however, no cause for alarm, as this is a relatively small slide compared to historical incidents, and the major headwinds seem to be dissipa...
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Jul 2022
The Nifty corrected sharply 8% in early June before a muted recovery towards the end of the month. We expect continued volatility with muted market returns over the coming 1-2 quarters. A clear direction should emerge only when clarity on a num...
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Jun 2022
India’s corporate earnings stayed resilient through the multiple shocks in early CY22. 4QFY22 earnings were strong with 22% PAT growth for the Nifty, driven by resilient margins despite the external shocks. More importantly, consensus est...
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May 2022
RBI’s off-cycle rate hike surprised the market more on its timing than its actual action. It has been apparent from the beginning of CY22 that the rate cycle had bottomed out and a period of normalisation would soon begin. Beyond the imme...
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Apr 2022
We see the end of a 4-6 month period when the market was disrupted by external factors – the Fed rate hike and the Ukraine war. The domestic economy should now take centre-stage: growth, opening-up, a strong agri recovery, and the capex c...
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Feb 2022
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has accelerated the recent market correction. We see continued volatility in the near-term as the geopolitical risks may take some time to recede. However, we remain bullish on FY23 fundamentals for Indian com...
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Feb 2022
The FY23 Union Budget continued the government’s renewed focus on growth recovery that began last year. The preference for government capex over consumption stimuli was reinforced as the government stayed with its belief that this creates...
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Jan 2022
Wishing all our investors and readers a happy and prosperous 2022. After two difficult years, we hope that we steadily come back to normalcy in our daily lives.
The year has, however, started on a stressful note. India is now in the ...
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Dec 2021
Multiple headwinds hit the market in November 2021 triggering a sharp sell-off. We think that most of the perceived negatives are being over-emphasised and this is a temporary phase. The economic recovery should drive a bounceback within months...
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Nov 2021
A volatile October 2021 ended on a weak note, but the market was flat over the month. Small and midcap sectors underperformed, along with high-beta sectors like commodities. We remain optimistic on the markets given the strong growth rebound, r...
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Oct 2021
The markets were strong through September 2021 with a 2.8% rally in the Nifty led by Nifty Auto, Realty and Infra. Small-caps and mid-caps had a strong month with 2x returns over the broader markets (see table below). The focus now shifts ...
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Sep 2021
A volatile October 2021 ended on a weak note, but the market was flat over the month. Small and midcap sectors underperformed, along with high-beta sectors like commodities. We remain optimistic on the markets given the strong growth rebound, r...
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Aug 2021
July’21 was another flat month for the indices (Nifty +0.3%) with interesting internals: small-caps and mid-caps outperformed with IT, consumers and healthcare the key sectoral leaders at the expense of financials and metals. The momentum...
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Jul 2021
The markets had a quiet June, with the Nifty flat (+1%) and defensive sectors like IT and FMCG outperforming – banks were the major drag. The lull could last for some time, but we believe this is a pause in a longer bull market driven by ...
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Jun 2021
The markets bounced back in May after two flat months, led primarily by the second Covid wave starting to recede and some acceleration in vaccination. Some of the laggard sectors over Feb-Mar'21 like banking, auto, energy and infrastructure...
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May 2021
We hope that you and your loved ones are safe and healthy. The second Covid wave has been more deadly and widespread than the first,and has had a devastating impact on many families. We would exhort you to observe all the necessary precautions ...
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Apr 2021
We are now faced with a sudden surge of Covid cases, especially in Mumbai and Maharashtra. We hope that you and your loved ones are safe and healthy. We urge you to be careful and observe the necessary precautions – wearing masks, washing...
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Mar 2021
We expect increased market choppiness in March after the relentless one-way upswing for almost a year. Some near-term headwinds are building up: rising yields both in India and the US, rising COVID infections and commodity price pressures.This ...
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Feb 2021
The watershed FY22 budget has, in our view, changed the trajectory of the Indian economy and the markets. We now see a sustained recovery out of the post-pandemic slump and a multi-year growth cycle of 6%+, led by capital expenditure. This shou...
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Dec 2020
It was another strong month for the markets with the Nifty rising 11.4 % led by banks, metals and capital goods. The key drivers were:
a) A favourable outcome on the US elections which helped contain global macro risks.
b) Conti...
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Nov 2020
The RBI working committee’s recommendation that corporate-promoted banks be awarded licenses should be implemented. India needs loan growth in double-digits for GDP above 6% - and we are stuck in a 6-8% rut for some time now.Faster loan g...
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Nov 2020
The markets have bounced back sharply. Nifty was up 3.5% in October 2020 with the Nifty Bank leading the way with a 11.4% rally. This was led mainly by strong numbers and the positive commentary from private banks, giving the market greater com...
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Oct 2020
The Nifty was soft in September with a -1.2% fall through the month – the main impact was on the Bank Nifty which fell -9.7%. The cuts were deeper intra-month, but a late rally helped recover some of the losses. We expect the broader indi...
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Sep 2020
The markets continued to be strong with the Nifty rallying 3% in August, and the improved breadth evident in NSE Midcap (up 7.8%) and NSE Small cap (up 11.5%) both outperforming. Despite the markets looking through the 1Q GDP contraction of 23....
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Aug 2020
RBI’s restructuring guidelines of 6 August 2020 protect the largest and most volatile sector from near-term shocks. This is an important positive for the market and reduces the short-term downside risks. However, macro challenges persist,...
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Jul 2020
It was another strong month for the Nifty with a 7.5% move in the broader index, driven by a strong post-lockdown recovery and enabled by global liquidity. The initial macro trends have been positive but there is a long way to go for the econom...
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Jun 2020
The Nifty had been resilient with a 3% correction in May 2020 followed by a 6% bounce in June 2020 (as on 08 June 2020). A clear direction will emerge, we think, only when there is greater visibility on the damage to the economy from the COVID-...
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Jun 2020
The six-year bull run for private banks and NBFCs (CY14-20) could take an extended pause. The macro shock of CY20 could narrow the investible universe for lending financials to 6-7 stocks, with lower returns than before. Investors, therefore, m...
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May 2020
The economic package from the government seems to have disappointed the markets and the Nifty has corrected 6 % (as of May 18, 2020) from the peak of May 13, 2020. The package has focused and delivered on two key areas – preserving financ...
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May 2020
The market rallied in April after a weak 1QCY20 – the Nifty was up 14.7% last month (as on 30th April, 2020) after a 23.2% correction in March 2020. We, however, believe that significant risks still remain and continue to be cautious in o...
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Apr 2020
We laid out our key worries for the economy in our CIO letter of Mar 23 – financial stability, a spiralling growth shock and risk aversion from banks choking credit. In this edition of the newsletter, we look at the important cues for the...
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Apr 2020
We are going through what by every measure is a great crisis is an understatement. The onset of the Covid-19 virus has put human lives at risk and created a global pandemic at an unprecedented scale with no known cure in the short to medium ter...
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Mar 2020
The spread of the Corona virus, and its second-order impact on both India and the world, is a new and significant headwind for the market. A sharp slowdown in discretionary consumption could hurt near-term earnings, even for high-quality compan...
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Feb 2020
Union Budget FY21
The initial negative market reaction to the budget was more to do with unrealistic expectations than any negatives in the budget itself. As we argued last year, t...
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Jan 2020
We approach 2020 with a cautious mindset, in the back of continued macro uncertainty. A muted consumption recovery is likely, but the investment cycle remains challenged and some risks to financial sector stability still persist. We remain focu...
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Jan 2020
At the outset I wish all of you and your families a very Happy New Year and a very healthy and successful 2020.
The year gone by…
2019 was a unique year for India...
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Dec 2019
The markets remained resilient through November 2019 with the Nifty rising 2.2% and the NSE Midcap rising 5.7%. The NSEBank was one of the key sectoral indices, rising >8% this month.
The concurrent indicators for the economy rema...
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Nov 2019
October 2019 was another strong month for equities, with the Nifty rising 3.5% on the back of a 4% rally in September. A notable feature was that the Nifty midcap outperformed the Nifty, rising by 4.9%. The sectoral performance remained tilted ...
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Oct 2019
The decisive policy moves in 3QCY19 have dampened the pessimism around the markets and provided some support. The efficacy of these measures should be more visible in 4QCY19. We will continue to track some important indicators to assess the pro...
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Sep 2019
Breaking the cycle of negativity
The surprise corporate tax cuts announced by the Finance Minister on Friday mornin...
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Sep 2019
The 7% correction† in the market (with poor internals) since April 2019 has created a better sync between expectations and reality. The momentum in the economy remains poor and gives little reason for comfort, but some government action ...
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Aug 2019
The rate cut has come and gone, but the post-budget sell-off in equities seems to be unabated and broad-based. The FPI tax was a small catalyst – the markets have belatedly started tracking the broader economy. The silver lining is that s...
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Jun 2019
The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance won an absolute majority in India’s parliamentary elections last month. This paved the way for Narendra Modi to be re-appointed as Prime Minister for a second consecutive term. The markets have res...
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